## ABSTRACT

*This project work is basically on the application of time series analysis on the monthly consumption of water and to examine the factors underlying the consumption rate of water. Statistical analysis on monthly consumption of water support can only be know if there is only one source water supply and it is observed that consumers of water have no confidence on service renders by the Niger State Urban Water Board due to their poor performance and inefficient co – ordination of water supply.*

## TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title page i

Certification ii

Dedication iii

Acknowledgement iv

Table of content v

Abstract vi

**CHAPTER ONE**

- Introduction 1
- Background to the study 1
- Statement of problem 2
- Purpose of the study 3
- Hypothesis of the study 4
- Significance of the study 5
- Scope and delimitation 5
- Definition of term 6

**CHAPTER TWO**

**CHAPTER THREE**

- The Analysis of Time Series 10
- The characteristics Movement of Time Series 10
- Models of Time Series 12
- Estimation of Seasonal Variation 13
- Deseasonalisation of Data 14
- Estimation of trend 14
- Exponential smoothing 17
- Z – chart 18
- Forecasting 18

**CHAPTER FOUR**

- Analysis of Data 19
- Presentation of Raw Data 19
- Method of Least Square 21
- Additive Model 25
- Deseasonalisation of Data 26

** **

**CHAPTER FIVE**

- Summary of findings, conclusion and recommendation 29
- Summary of findings 29
- Conclusion 29
- Recommendation 30

References

## CHAPTER ONE

**INTRODUCTION**

**1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY**

The Niger State Urban Water Board covers the township of Suleja and the state Capital of Minna as well as Bida. Where on the map of Niger State you will see the geographical locations of Suleja, Minna and Bida with the state.

The Suleja total population was 53, 960 in 1987. The major source of water supply was a low – head weir at IKU River with a storage capacity of one million cubic meters, which was inadequate to meet the water demand of the township. The majority (76.4%) of the households. Was served by sewage pit latrine facilities. Only 15.6% of the household were using waterborne sewerage systems of individual septic tank and soakaway facilities while the remainder (8%) had no toilet facilities at all. The Niger State Urban Water Board was aimed to satisfy the total waster demand of Suleja up to year 2013. This total demand was estimated at 79.732 m3/d of which 47, 744 m^{3}/d were for domestic consumption while the remainder was assumed to cover the commercial and industrial needs.

The Minna total population was 200, 000 in 1989 with a total water demand of 32, 200 m3/d. the installed capacity of the existing water works was 30,375 m^{3}/d, however, it was estimated that the total output from the works could only be about 50% of the installed capacity owing to deterioration of plant and equipment. It was also estimated that 65.2% of the households were dependent on pit latrines for faecal disposal. A little less than 6% were dependent on bucket latrines. Only 13% of the households had waterborne sanitary facilities. The balance of 16% of the households did not have any toilet facilities within the compound. Under this project, the total capacity of water works was planned to be 70,000 m^{3}/d including the new additional 40, 000 m3/d to meet the demand for up to year 2001. To assist the Government to determine the long – term demand.

The Niger State Urban Water Board (NSUWB) function is to control and manage all water works in the state and ensure that water is supplies to consumers in the state at reasonable charges, in potable and adequate quality Urban Water Board in Suleja is divided into

- Commercial department, which comprises of marketing and accounting department
- Administrative department and engineering department board on these number of labour force and technology adequate water supply without interruption is impossible proper forecast for the future to avoid previous ability of efficient co-ordination of water supply is also a problem. But the researcher believe that “There is no hopeless situations” only people who are hopeless about situation, if so the researcher has decided to use statistical analysis as a method which helps to cope with uncertainly about the future. It is chronologically arranged as the most important factor because variable are always related with time which may be either years, months, weeks, days, hours or minutes.

**1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM**

This project is critically designed to examine the statistical analysis of water consumption in Niger State. Statistical analysis on monthly consumption of water supply can only be known if there is only one source water supply. It is observed that consumers of water have no confidence on services render by the Niger State Urban Water Board (NSUWB) due to their poor performance and inefficient co – ordination of water supply. To justify the above statement here are question before the authority.

- What is the cause of water failure always?
- If NSUWB can supply other areas of the state without difficulties, why do they fail in local areas?
- Is it only privatization that can solve inadequate water supply in Niger State?
- Can we say the major problem of water interruption comes from the consumers of the NSUWB?
- Can it be that the water stations are not enough?
- Demand for water, can it be more than the water supply for consumption?

Can these problems be solved? How! The word “How” motivated the researcher interest to English term the NSUWB about statistical analysis used in this researcher work to answer problems faced by the NSUWB in charge of water.

**1.3 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY**

The purpose of the study is to statistically analyze the monthly consumption of water supply; also the purpose of the study includes the following.

- To explain role of statistical analysis on monthly consumption of Niger State Urban Water Board (NSUWB)
- To study the rate at which is consumed in the past years
- To suggests ways of improving the statistical analysis on monthly consumption of water supply.
- To measure the characteristic movement and calculated the trend by method of moving average and least square.

Once these have been identified, it would be very easy to forecast for the years ahead to prevent inadequate water supply.

**1.4 HYPOTHESIS**

A hypothesis is a tentative statement or an answer to a question. It is conjectural proposition an educated guess about the solution to a problem, this is also an assumption whose veracity and validity is to be established for irrulated and tested hypothesis are essential steps in research work.

A good hypothesis has the following basic characteristics

- It should be consistent with known facts
- It should be stated in the simplest possible term
- It should be reasonable
- It should be stated in such a way, it can be tested and found to be probably true or false.

There are two types of hypothesis they are:

- The null hypothesis: This is the hypothesis, which states that there are no significant differences, or relationship that does exist between two or variables.
- Te alternative hypothesis: This is the hypothesis, which states that there are significant differences, or relationship that exist between two or more variables.

**1.5 SIGNIFICANT OF THE STUDY**

There are many factors that contribute to economic growth and development in a country or state. Among the major factors, water is one essential factor, without water, agricultural product cannot be produce, life on emergency cannot be saved by Doctor, many things will lies at stake, economics of the state will also decline and there will be nothing to write or say about advancement in technology. Democracy can only bring changes in Nigeria economy, if water problems are solved urgently of the state or country to progress. The research is significant, as it has revealed some useful statistical analysis techniques, which are seriously recommended by the researcher for improvement.

The research is also significant because it could serve as a good ground for further research work by future researcher.

**1.6 SCOPE OF DELIMITATION**

This research work is on statistical analysis of water consumption in Niger State. But it only covers Niger State Urban Water Board In Suleja Local Government Area of Niger State with the hope have generalize result for the state.

**1.7 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY**

The major limiting factors in the course of this research work include the following:

- Data was collected from Urban Water Board Niger State and not originated by the researcher
- The nature of the data themselves whether they are bias or not I don’t know
- Method at which Niger State Urban Water Board used to read the water is unknown to the researcher
- The researcher does not guarantee accuracy of the data since those limiting factors are therefore before the researcher, these constraints might restrict the accuracy for result because there is nothing the researcher can do about it.

**1.8 DEFINITION OF TERMS**

In this research work, some concept or words used by the researcher which required conceptual clarification, some of these include;

**Statistical:** Numerical factors systematically collected

**Analysis:** resolution into simple element

**Consumption:** Using up, destruction, waste amount consumed

**NSUWB:** Niger State Urban Water Board responsible for the provision of water in the state.

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